Good luck, Have fun

It is pretty common to hear someone say "good luck" before you do something important.

But good luck seems to imply that there is some meaningful probability of success or failure, and hopefully the dice roll lands on the number you want. Most of the time, that is not really the case. The amount of preparation you undergo before big events should minimize the probability of failure to something pretty insignificant.

And when that is not the case, you should be thinking in bets anyway. If the probability really is not on your side, do some quick napkin math, calculate the EV and decide whether you should be doing the thing in the first place.

A much better phrase (and my personal goto), is "have fun!"

Even when the thing you are doing is important or high pressure, saying "have fun" does two things.

First, it reminds you of all the preparation that got you to this moment.

Second, it shifts your brain away from thinking about all the ways things can go wrong, and instead orients you toward all the things that might be interesting, exciting, or just fun.

There are of course, some things where randomness has enough influence on the outcome that luck is very real. Poker is a good example. You can prepare, calculate the probabilities, know exactly what you are doing, and still get borked by a card.

But that is life. So in those cases, good luck, but never just good luck.

Good luck, have fun.

The outcome might be floating somewhere in probability, but you should still have fun while it reveals itself.

So remember, it is almost always "have fun", and every once in a while, good luck, have fun.